The Great Unravelling

Macro policy making in turbulent times - a powerpoint presentation from tutor2u:
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Unemployment and the PBR

Check out this resource from The Guardian on unemployment statistics and the Pre-Budget Report.

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No change at the Bank

Yes it is the first Thursday of the month again and time for the MPC to decide on interest rates and quantitative easing.

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Economics of the Pre Budget Report

Some analysis of yesterday's pre-budget report.

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Irish Times

AH Economists heading on the Economics trip to Dublin next week should keep an eye on The Irish Times website. The Irish government announces their annual budget today - widely anticipated to be the most painful in many years.

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Image shows Brian Lenihan, Minister for Finance, presenting his 2010 budget to journalists this morning.

Darling's Debt Dilemma

It's Pre Budget Report Day! Here's a fun animation to help you understand the debt dilemma faced by the Chancellor:

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Green shoots or red letter debt?

Excellent presentation on UK prospects for recovery.
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American Jobless Interactive Graphic

Check out this graphic from the New York Times.

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Aftershock: The Global Financial Crisis

This is an excellent page from the BBC World Service, tracking the impact of the financial crisis worldwide.

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CPI starts to rise again

Inflation is on the rise again: read more...

Role of the G20

Some articles on the role of the G20 and the multilateral approach to policy.
interactive map...
article...

Why is the UK still in recession?

With the eurozone the latest to announce its return to growth, why is the UK still in recession.
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Rate of UK Unemployment slowing

Latest ONS statistics show a slowing rate of increase for UK unemployment - the total now stands at 2.46 million.

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November Inflation Report

The Bank of England has released its latest inflation report.

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Excellent links page

Over 200 useful Economics sites linked from this page...

Why Study Economics

This is the website reccommended by John Sloman at the recent Economics conference...

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Bank leaves rate unchanged but extends Quantitative Easing.

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Monetary Policy Decisions!

The Monetary Policy Committee look set to have an interesting meeting this week as they make their monthly decision on interest rates (currently 0.5%). They key question is will they push for further quantitative easing? Despite Britain's failure to emerge from recession just yet, there are promising signs in housing and retail markets, although inflation remains very low.
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Lessons to be learnt from revitalised economies...

The UK is out in the cold, suffering the most prolonged recession in decades and other countries seem to have started their recovery without us! So how do we position ourselves for strong long term growth?
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How close did we come to a major depression?
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Recession and recovery - powerpoint resource

Check out this useful powerpoint resource from Tutor2u:

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The jobless recovery

With many nations now showing positive GDP growth, it is important to remember that unemployment will persist as firms are hesitant to increase their workforce until they

are at full capacity once more.

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USA experiences GDP growth once more...

Mostly driven by consumer demand, US GDP rose by 3.5% in the 3rd quarter (annualised rate). Read the Wall Street Journal article here...

The BBC website have also published a debate between 2 economists on the future of the US economy.
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Road to recession

Excellent timeline from The Guardian, tracking the 12 months leading up to January 2009, when Britain officially entered recession.
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Also from The Guardian - a timeline of the events from January to October 2009.
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Which countries are out of recession?

Find out which countries either dodged recession altogether or are currently out of recession and in growth.

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It's official...

The UK is not out of recession!

The Office for National Statistics has calculated that UK GDP continued to shrink in the third quarter of 2009, falling by 0.4%. This makes this recession the longest since records begain in 1955. City traders have criticised economists for over optimistic forecasts, and the value of sterling has fallen on the news. However, these figures may be revised slightly as they are only a first draft.

read more in The Times

read, watch and listen on the BBC

UK likely to be last out of recession - The Guardian

OECD indicators of recovery

OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for August 2009 continue to point to recovery in all major economies. This is an interesting set of indicator values for AH students to examine in more depth.

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UK Unemployment growth slows

UK Unemployment continues to rise, but the rate of growth is starting to slow, according to latest figures.
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Check out this excellent interactive graphic from the Guardian displaying UE trends since 1984.
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Bank of England reveals return of growth but falling inflation

The Bank of England is beng cautiously optimistic about UK growth but both CPI and RPI continue to fall.
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Press release from the Office for National Statistics

Russian economy expected to shrink 7.5% in 2009

Russia still to find secret of recovery.
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Pound hit by falling UK inflation

CPI has fallen to 1.1%, making it likely that UK interest rates will stay low... which in turn is causing an outflow of hot money... and causing further falls in the value of sterling!!
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Protectionist Politics in America?

The Economist has been pretty scathing in their condemnation of Barack Obama's recent restriction on tyre imports from China, labelling the policy: "bad politics, bad economics, bad diplomacy".

read more...

CBI warns that UK could be slow to recover from recession

Some mixed signals around in the media at present. The Confederation for British Industry are taking a cautious approach to prospects for recovery.
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A world in debt

Excellent interactive map from The Economist showing public debt across the world.
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Fall in sterling

Comments by the Bank of England have prompted a fall in the value of the pound.
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Government expenditure

Government spending, the size of our public sector and the challenge of reducing the deficit are big issues for the next election. Check out this excellent graphic from the Financial Times website:

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America's debate on "big" government.

America seems very confused about the nature of its economic system. Many criticised the government's decision not to rescue Lehman's a year ago, then we a saw an unprecedented fiscal stimulus package to fight recession. Now, republicans are on the streets protesting against "big government" in the form of healthcare reform. Is Obama really trying to move America to the left or is he just bringing provision of this merit good in line with other wealthy economies? Meanwhile, the French are kicking up a fuss over pay and bonus regulation - arguing for more government intervention in the market. Did the financial crisis prove that the capitalist model is fundamentally flawed or is it still the "least worst" system? The debate continues.

read more...

Recession time-line

Follow the world economy from credit crunch to full recession with this BBC resource.
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Household wealth falls by 31k

New figures show the impact of the recession on wealth of Uk households.

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The Bank that Bust the World

Why the collapse of Lehman had disastrous consequences for the world economy. Some intelligent television viewing this week. BBC 2 Thursday 2100 or check out iplayer at a time that suits.

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Manufacturing nudges economy towards recovery

British manufacturing output is on the rise again, mainly due to increased car production. This was helped by government fiscal stimulus in the form of a car scrappage scheme.
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Retail recovery hopes were premature

Some good retail growth in the summer had given rise to optimism but recent figures show that recovery is at best fragile.
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UN warns of deflation

The UN has warned that deflation may undermine recovery.
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Britain to lag behind other leading economies in recovery

The OECD has released its latest projections for the world economy.
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Financial Times Resource

Excellent page on the global financial crisis from the Financial Times.

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Welcome Back!

Welcome back to a new academic year!
Use this blog to keep track of key stories of relevance to your SQA Economics course. Advanced Higher students should be paying particular attention as success in the course relies heavily on your ability to relate economic theory to contemporary events. Right now, much of the economics debate in the media is centred on the prospect of recovery from our current recession. Browse the links that follow to get an idea of the posibilities for 2009/10.

Timeline: Credit crunch to downturn

Excellent resource from the BBC website.
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Recession and cheaper pound help to cut UK trade deficit

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The Road to Recovery and the Inflation Target

Speech by Paul Fisher, Executive Director, Markets and Member of the Monetary Policy Committee
BANK OF ENGLAND
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Meeting the challenges of economic recovery, Andrew Sentance

Speech by Andrew Sentance of the MPC about meeting the challenges of economic recovery.
read more...

Future for the global economy

Excellent article from the Times on the post recession world order.
read more...

The bath tub recovery and other comparisons...

What shape might economic recovery take...
read more...

Record British Bankruptcies

56% increase in the number of firms going bust in Britain.
read more...

Budget 2009

The Chancellor has presented his annual budget to the House of Commons. It contains some grim projections for growth and government borrowing. Talking points include an increase in tax for wealthy families and a scrapage scheme for old cars, designed to help the motor industry.

read more...

Deflation has arrived!

The RPI has turned negative.
read more...

Manning the barricades...

Who's at risk as deepening economic distress foments social unrest?

This special range of articles has been put together by The Economist Intelligence Unit.

read more...

When jobs disappear...

This week's Economist leads with a story on global unemployment. This article examines policy options.

read more...

Philip David Gray Memorial Essay Competition

Essay Title: The effect of the current economic crisis on developing nations.

Suggested reading below. Approx 1,000 words.
Mr Irvine's Class:

• Deadline for submission is 1245 Thursday 26th March. We will spend the Thursday double period in ICT room 65. Note: there will be no additonal class time allowed for this specific essay.
• Lessons on Developing Economies are scheduled for Monday 23rd and Wednesday 25th March.

Economic ill winds hit Africa - BBC
The global crisis and the poor - The Economist
Global Economic Prospects - report by the World Bank, December 2008
IMF promises to stand up for Africa - Guardian

ILO - Youtube video
Global Prospects for Economic Growth 2009 - World Bank Video

Euforic blog article

Institute of Development Studies

World Bank paper prepared for G20 summit

What do you do when aggressive interest rate cuts don't work?

You cut them again (now down to 0.5%) and start some "quantitative easing".

Read more...
What is quantitative easing?

S3 Oil Project

Use the following resources for your research on the recent rise and fall in the price of oil:

BBC News articles

Guardian articles and interactive graphics

Financial Times Oil Page

Wikipedia on Oil Prices

Tutor-2-U resources

BP website

The Spectre of Economic Nationalism...!!!

This week's Economist leads with a very dramatic and "scary" piece on the dangers of protectionism. The magazine's editorial team are strong supporters of free trade!

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Interest Rates Cut... again!

Monetary Policy
The Bank of England has cut the interest rate to 1%, its lowest rate ever.
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Davos warnings on protectionism

World leaders, gathered at the World Economic Forum in Davos have issued dire warnings about the dangers of protectionism.
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Concern over protectionism in US rescue package

Is Obama's economic rescue package littered with protectionist policy? Could it harm world trade?
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Weaker pound helps Vodafone...

Article showing the benefits of a weaker pound for British exporters.
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Dealing with Zimbabwe's Hyperinflation

The Zimbabwean government have just wiped 12 zero's off the value of the currency.
read more...

BBC Recession Tracker

Excellent resource from the BBC, enabling you to track important economic data as the recession develops.

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70,000 jobs slashed worldwide

Unemployment is a lagging factor in any recession, so it likely that job losses will continue to rise until after the economy starts to improve again.
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Return to Protectionism?

International Trade
Obama's fiscal stimulus package may include a "buy American" clause for building materials and other products. Is this a risk to world trade?
read more...
see graphic...

How quickly could the UK economy recover?

Business Cycles
Excellent and easy to read piece on how long this recession might last. read more...

Pound close to 23 year low

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